Mr. Ruto’s Dilemma

Rateng and BrideMr. Ruto has an important appointment with his ODM party notables this morning. On the agenda is Mau forest, the tribunal vs tjrc vs the Hague on Kenya’s 2007 post-election Violence. When ODM meets, every notable will be required to take a stand or declare that he or she stands by the party resolutions of the day.

On the way to today’smeeting, Mr. Ruto talked to kalenjin elders, then drank tea with young Kibaki, who is experimenting with an Obama-type youth movement as most dreamers do these days. Now, Mr. Ruth was a youth in 1992 with Mr. Jirongo— close to 3 decades later, he can’t still be a youth. So any right-thinking pundit must assume that he had either gone to young Kibaki to be briefed before the meeting or some morale-boosting carrots and hellish alternatives were dangled at him. If Mr. Ruto had any credibility left as the Kalenjin leader of today, he lost it yesterday. If he intended to use the meeting as a warning to Mr. Odinga and his ODMbrigade, then he mistook his ODM and Rift Valley audience- – – there is nothing as damaging in Kenyan politics as the perception that one is eating “ugali” with the opposition.

Who benefits in Ruto-Kibaki deal?

PNU or rather elements within PNU, who are scared of the great Imanyara Tribunal Bill (blessed by the Justice Minister Kilonzo—a protege of VP Kalonzo of ODM-Kenya) on the 2007 post-election violence tribunal. Mr. Ruto is being used to scuttle the imanyara bill because success of the bill would disturb the political waters of significant persons in central kenya politics, as it would Mr. Ruto himself. Any unity in ODM for the Mau and the Tribunal is MR. Ruto’s nightmare. This unity is the more likely because he ate “ugali” with PNU on a day when the Chairman of the Kalenjin Council of Elders was in the print news on the 2007 Post-Election Violence. Mr. Ruto’s supporters and fellow ODM MPs in the greater Rift Valley must be looking at him anew this morning. What Mr. Ruto will meet at ODM’s gathering this morning is a very skeptical audience known for straight talk. Take-home lesson: one cannot constantly fight the man they call Agwambo without risks.

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